When Fusion Helps and When It Breaks: View-Aligned Robustness in Same-Source Financial Imaging
AI 摘要
研究金融图像表示的多视角学习和对抗鲁棒性,探索融合策略对预测性能的影响。
主要贡献
- 揭示标签噪声对金融时间序列预测的影响
- 分析了早期和晚期融合策略在金融图像预测中的优劣
- 评估了模型在不同类型对抗攻击下的鲁棒性表现
方法论
构建基于OHLCV和技术指标的金融图像视图,采用时间块分割,研究不同融合方法和对抗攻击的影响。
原文摘要
We study same-source multi-view learning and adversarial robustness for next-day direction prediction with financial image representations. On Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) spot gold data (2005-2025), we construct two window-aligned views from each rolling window: an OHLCV-rendered price/volume chart and a technical-indicator matrix. To ensure reliable evaluation, we adopt leakage-resistant time-block splits with embargo and use Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). We find that results depend strongly on the label-noise regime: we apply an ex-post minimum-movement filter that discards samples with realized next-day absolute return below tau to define evaluation subsets with reduced near-zero label ambiguity. This induces a non-monotonic data-noise trade-off that can reveal predictive signal but eventually increases variance as sample size shrinks; the filter is used for offline benchmark construction rather than an inference-time decision rule. In the stabilized subsets, fusion is regime dependent: early fusion by channel stacking can exhibit negative transfer, whereas late fusion with dual encoders and a fusion head provides the dominant clean-performance gains; cross-view consistency regularization has secondary, backbone-dependent effects. We further evaluate test-time L-infinity perturbations using FGSM and PGD under two threat scenarios: view-constrained attacks that perturb one view and joint attacks that perturb both. We observe severe vulnerability at tiny budgets with strong view asymmetry. Late fusion consistently improves robustness under view-constrained attacks, but joint attacks remain challenging and can still cause substantial worst-case degradation.