LLM Reasoning 相关度: 8/10

MEME: Modeling the Evolutionary Modes of Financial Markets

Taian Guo, Haiyang Shen, Junyu Luo, Zhongshi Xing, Hanchun Lian, Jinsheng Huang, Binqi Chen, Luchen Liu, Yun Ma, Ming Zhang
arXiv: 2602.11918v1 发布: 2026-02-12 更新: 2026-02-12

AI 摘要

MEME模型将金融市场视为演化生态,通过投资叙事建模市场动态,优于现有方法。

主要贡献

  • 提出了Logic-Oriented的金融市场建模视角
  • 构建了MEME模型,通过多Agent提取和高斯混合模型重建市场动态
  • 设计了时间评估和对齐机制,跟踪投资叙事的生命周期和盈利能力

方法论

采用多Agent提取投资论点,使用高斯混合模型发现潜在共识,并通过时间评估对齐跟踪叙事演变。

原文摘要

LLMs have demonstrated significant potential in quantitative finance by processing vast unstructured data to emulate human-like analytical workflows. However, current LLM-based methods primarily follow either an Asset-Centric paradigm focused on individual stock prediction or a Market-Centric approach for portfolio allocation, often remaining agnostic to the underlying reasoning that drives market movements. In this paper, we propose a Logic-Oriented perspective, modeling the financial market as a dynamic, evolutionary ecosystem of competing investment narratives, termed Modes of Thought. To operationalize this view, we introduce MEME (Modeling the Evolutionary Modes of Financial Markets), designed to reconstruct market dynamics through the lens of evolving logics. MEME employs a multi-agent extraction module to transform noisy data into high-fidelity Investment Arguments and utilizes Gaussian Mixture Modeling to uncover latent consensus within a semantic space. To model semantic drift among different market conditions, we also implement a temporal evaluation and alignment mechanism to track the lifecycle and historical profitability of these modes. By prioritizing enduring market wisdom over transient anomalies, MEME ensures that portfolio construction is guided by robust reasoning. Extensive experiments on three heterogeneous Chinese stock pools from 2023 to 2025 demonstrate that MEME consistently outperforms seven SOTA baselines. Further ablation studies, sensitivity analysis, lifecycle case study and cost analysis validate MEME's capacity to identify and adapt to the evolving consensus of financial markets. Our implementation can be found at https://github.com/gta0804/MEME.

标签

金融市场 LLM 投资叙事

arXiv 分类

cs.AI