Aura: Universal Multi-dimensional Exogenous Integration for Aviation Time Series
AI 摘要
Aura框架通过整合多维外部因素,显著提升了航空时间序列预测的准确性和适应性。
主要贡献
- 提出Aura框架,显式组织和编码异构外部信息。
- 针对航空维护场景,识别并利用三种不同的外部因素。
- 在大型工业数据集上验证了Aura的优越性和适应性。
方法论
Aura利用定制的三方编码机制,将异构特征嵌入到成熟的时间序列模型中,实现非序列上下文的无缝集成。
原文摘要
Time series forecasting has witnessed an increasing demand across diverse industrial applications, where accurate predictions are pivotal for informed decision-making. Beyond numerical time series data, reliable forecasting in practical scenarios requires integrating diverse exogenous factors. Such exogenous information is often multi-dimensional or even multimodal, introducing heterogeneous interactions that unimodal time series models struggle to capture. In this paper, we delve into an aviation maintenance scenario and identify three distinct types of exogenous factors that influence temporal dynamics through distinct interaction modes. Based on this empirical insight, we propose Aura, a universal framework that explicitly organizes and encodes heterogeneous external information according to its interaction mode with the target time series. Specifically, Aura utilizes a tailored tripartite encoding mechanism to embed heterogeneous features into well-established time series models, ensuring seamless integration of non-sequential context. Extensive experiments on a large-scale, three-year industrial dataset from China Southern Airlines, covering the Boeing 777 and Airbus A320 fleets, demonstrate that Aura consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across all baselines and exhibits superior adaptability. Our findings highlight Aura's potential as a general-purpose enhancement for aviation safety and reliability.