Procela: Epistemic Governance in Mechanistic Simulations Under Structural Uncertainty
AI 摘要
Procela框架通过动态调整模型结构,提升了在结构不确定性下模拟的准确性和适应性。
主要贡献
- 提出了Procela框架,用于在结构不确定性下进行模拟
- 变量作为认知权威,维护完整的假设记忆
- 运行时通过治理机制观察认知信号并改变系统拓扑
方法论
构建Python框架,变量作为认知权威,机制编码竞争本体,治理机制观察认知信号并动态改变系统拓扑。
原文摘要
Mechanistic simulations typically assume fixed ontologies: variables, causal relationships, and resolution policies are static. This assumption fails when the true causal structure is contested or unidentifiable-as in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) spread, where contact, environmental, and selection ontologies compete. We introduce Procela, a Python framework where variables act as epistemic authorities that maintain complete hypothesis memory, mechanisms encode competing ontologies as causal units, and governance observes epistemic signals and mutates system topology at runtime. This is the first framework where simulations test their own assumptions. We instantiate Procela for AMR in a hospital network with three competing families. Governance detects coverage decay, policy fragility, and runs structural probes. Results show 20.4% error reduction and 69% cumulative regret improvement over baseline. All experiments are reproducible with full auditability. Procela establishes a new paradigm: simulations that model not only the world but their own modeling process, enabling adaptation under structural uncertainty.